December Fed hike quotes rise after two dissents, then fall below pre-meeting levels on Kalshi and Polymarket

The Federal Open Market Committee held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on 28 October, and two of its voters wanted to raise it. According to the FOMC statement, the decision was taken “by a 10 – 2 vote”, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voting against because they “preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting”.

On Kalshi and Polymarket, quotes for a quarter-point hike at the next meeting, on 8–9 December, rose in the hours after the statement. By the morning of 30 October they had more than reversed that move.

What the Fed said

The statement says “Inflation remains elevated” and that economic activity “is expanding at a strong pace”. It adds that “the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal”, and closes: “The Committee will deliver price stability.”

The implementation note directs the New York Fed’s desk to keep the federal funds rate within 3-3/4 to 4 percent from 29 October. It keeps interest on reserve balances at 3.90 percent, the standing repo rate at 4.0 percent, the overnight reverse repo rate at 3.75 percent and the primary credit rate at 4.0 percent.

The Fed’s meeting calendar lists the next meeting for 8–9 December, with a Summary of Economic Projections.

Where the December contracts stand

All prices below are market quotes, not probabilities. Each is the mid-point of the best bid and best ask at the time of our check. Volume figures are notional ($1 face), not cash.

Kalshi, event KXFEDDECISION-26DEC, checked at 06:36 GMT on 30 October:

Outcome	Bid / ask	Mid
Hike 25bps	70¢ / 71¢	70.5¢
Fed maintains rate	27¢ / 28¢	27.5¢
Hike >25bps	2¢ / 3¢	2.5¢
Cut 25bps	0¢ / 1¢	0.5¢
Cut >25bps	0¢ / 1¢	0.5¢

Total notional traded across the five December markets was $2.27m. The largest share, $0.75m, was in the “Fed maintains rate” market. The markets close at 18:59 GMT on 9 December.

Polymarket, “Fed Decision in December?”, checked at 06:36 GMT on 30 October:

Outcome	Bid / ask	Mid
25 bps increase	72¢ / 73¢	72.5¢
No change	25¢ / 26¢	25.5¢
50+ bps increase	1.7¢ / 2¢	1.85¢
25 bps decrease	0.5¢ / 0.6¢	0.55¢
50+ bps decrease	0.3¢ / 0.4¢	0.35¢

Polymarket reported $9.04m in notional for the event, of which $1.89m was in the previous 24 hours. Its own one-day change fields show the hike outcome down 5¢ and “No change” up 6¢.

How the quotes moved

Kalshi’s hourly candlestick data for the 25bp hike market gives this path (closing bid / ask for each hour, GMT):

• 06:00, 28 October (morning of the decision): 74¢ / 75¢.
• 18:00–19:00, 28 October (the hour after the statement, released at 18:00 GMT): 79¢ / 80¢, with 76,918 contracts traded in that hour, the busiest hour for the market in the period we checked.
• 19:00–20:00, 28 October: 80¢ / 81¢.
• 19:00–20:00, 29 October: 75¢ / 76¢.
• 05:00–06:00, 30 October: 70¢ / 71¢.

The “Fed maintains rate” market moved the other way: 23¢ / 24¢ at 06:00 GMT on 28 October, 16¢ / 18¢ in the hour after the statement, and 27¢ / 28¢ by 06:00 GMT on 30 October.

Polymarket’s hourly price history for its 25bp increase outcome shows the same shape: 76.5¢ at 06:00 GMT on 28 October, a high of 79¢ at 23:00 GMT that night, 76.5¢ at 20:00 GMT on 29 October and a low of 69.5¢ at 02:00 GMT on 30 October, before recovering to 72.5¢ by our check.

Most of the fall came between about 20:00 GMT on 29 October and 02:00 GMT on 30 October. Neither venue’s data says why. The Fed’s press-release feed shows no monetary policy release after the 28 October statement as of 06:37 GMT on 30 October.

The December hike was already the leading outcome before the meeting. On Kalshi, its hourly mid-quote ranged from 71.5¢ to 75.5¢ between 20 and 27 October, apart from a dip to 66¢ on 22 October. The post-statement rise was a move from an already high base, not a sudden repricing from a hold.

Why it matters

Two dissents in favour of a hike point to hawkish pressure inside the Committee, and both venues still put the hike ahead of a hold for December. But the overnight fall left both hike quotes below where they were on the morning of the decision, and Kalshi’s hold quote above its pre-meeting level, without any new primary Fed communication. For readers using event contracts as a rates signal, that is a reminder that these quotes can move sharply overnight without new information from the Fed. On Kalshi the overnight fall was not a drift on light volume: three of the six busiest hourly periods for the December hike market between 20 and 30 October came between 20:00 GMT on 29 October and 02:00 GMT on 30 October.

Size matters too. Kalshi’s December event has $2.27m in notional traded in total, against $22.38m for its now-settled October event (checked 06:39 GMT on 30 October). Polymarket’s December event stands at $9.04m.

What we are watching

• Speeches and testimony by FOMC participants before the December blackout period, especially from Cook and Hammack, explaining their dissents.
• The minutes of the 27–28 October meeting, which the Fed’s calendar has not yet dated.
• Whether December notional on both venues grows, and whether the hike and hold quotes converge or diverge, as the 8–9 December meeting approaches.