Midterms eve: Kalshi and Polymarket line up on Senate control as Kalshi's balance-of-power notional rises
At 06:34 GMT on 2 Nov, the day before polling, Kalshi and Polymarket both quoted Senate Democratic control at 72.5¢, up 5 and 4 points since our check on Friday 30 Oct. Kalshi's balance-of-power contracts added $26.1m of notional ($1 face, not cash) over the same period. Prices are market quotes, not probabilities.