Prediction Markets Weekly: 2026-W45
Week of 2–9 Nov 2026. Notional at $1 face, excluding sports. Prices are market quotes, not probabilities.
The finding: Financial contracts excluding crypto recorded $433.6m in notional on Kalshi and Polymarket’s international exchange in the week to 9 Nov 2026 (snapshots 2 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC to 9 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC), 8.7% of non-sports notional ($380.8m of the financial total was in short-dated contracts lasting 24 hours or less); commodities led with $365.8m, and the largest longer-dated financial market was ‘Fed Decision in December?’ on Polymarket at $6.5m ($1 face notional, excluding sports).
Key numbers
- $433.6m financial notional excluding crypto (Kalshi $411.9m, Polymarket $21.6m); 8.7% of non-sports notional, with $380.8m of it in short-dated contracts (≤24 hours open to close) and $52.8m longer-dated
- Financial split: commodities $365.8m, equity indices $21.3m, FX $16.4m, rates and the Fed $13.7m, other financial $13.1m, macro data $3.4m
- $6.5m largest longer-dated financial market: ‘Fed Decision in December?’ on Polymarket
- $220.6m largest financial series: ‘Gold 15-minute’ on Kalshi ($220.6m of it short-dated)
- $75.7m financial open interest excluding crypto at the end snapshot (Kalshi $52.7m, Polymarket $23.0m)
- 59.9% of non-sports notional was in short-dated crypto price contracts lasting a day or less ($3.00bn); Kalshi’s 15-minute bitcoin series alone accounted for $2.20bn
- $1.62bn non-sports notional excluding all short-dated contracts (≤24 hours open to close); longer-dated crypto price contracts were $95.6m of that
- $1.41bn politics notional (Kalshi $1.12bn, Polymarket $287.3m), after removing $40.8m in markets on war, military action, ceasefires, civil unrest and other violence
- $5.00bn weekly notional excluding sports (Kalshi $4.50bn, Polymarket $498.5m)
- 90.0% Kalshi share of non-sports notional; Polymarket 10.0%
- 14.4% of non-sports notional was in the ten largest events (of 45,654 with activity)
- $656.3m Kalshi open interest at the end snapshot (-26.7% on the start)
Window: 2 Nov 2026, 00:06 to 9 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC. Kalshi snapshots 2 Nov 2026, 00:06 → 9 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC; Polymarket 2 Nov 2026, 00:06 → 9 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC.
Notional ($1 face), not cash. Excluding sports. Prices, where shown, are market quotes, not probabilities. All times UTC (GMT).
Order of this edition: 1. financial contracts excluding crypto; 2. crypto; 3. politics (markets on war, military action and other violence removed); 4. other non-sports markets; then the all-market tables.
This week’s video
Watch the Prediction Markets Weekly W45 video (under 60 seconds on YouTube).
Cite this data
Copy this line:
Source: The MidPoint News Prediction Markets Weekly, 2026-W45 (Kalshi and Polymarket public APIs; snapshots 2 Nov 2026, 00:06 to 9 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC), themidpointnews.com/prediction-markets/data/weekly/2026-w45/- Permalink for this edition: /prediction-markets/data/weekly/2026-w45/
- Rights: © The MidPoint News. All rights reserved. Short extracts may be quoted with credit: ‘Source: The MidPoint News Prediction Markets Weekly, themidpointnews.com’. Venue data remain subject to each venue’s own terms.
1. Financial contracts, excluding crypto
Rates and the Fed, equity indices, macro data (inflation, jobs, GDP, recession), FX, commodities, and company and earnings-type markets. Crypto price contracts are not included here; they are in section 2. Subcategories follow a published mapping of venue series, tags and title keywords (config/financial_subcategories.json; see the methodology).
| Venue | Weekly notional | Short-dated (≤24h) | Longer-dated | Share of financial | Open interest, start → end | OI change | Active markets | Events with activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $411.9m | $380.7m | $31.2m | 95.0% | $51.6m → $52.7m | +2.1% | 36,795 | 9,796 |
| Polymarket (international) | $21.6m | $0.1m | $21.6m | 5.0% | $21.2m → $23.0m | +8.6% | 5,374 | 1,735 |
| Total | $433.6m | $380.8m | $52.8m | 100% | $72.8m → $75.7m | 42,169 | 11,531 |
Financial contracts excluding crypto were 8.7% of all non-sports notional this week, with $380.8m of the financial total in short-dated contracts (≤24 hours open to close).
By subcategory
| Subcategory | Kalshi | Polymarket (intl) | Total | Share of financial | Short-dated (≤24h) | Longer-dated | Open interest (end) | Events with activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates and the Fed | $4.8m | $8.9m | $13.7m | 3.2% | $1.6m | $12.2m | $19.0m | 1,575 |
| Equity indices | $20.6m | $0.7m | $21.3m | 4.9% | $12.3m | $9.0m | $12.6m | 260 |
| Macro data | $2.8m | $0.6m | $3.4m | 0.8% | $0.1m | $3.3m | $8.7m | 372 |
| FX | $16.3m | $0.0m | $16.4m | 3.8% | $16.3m | $0.1m | $0.1m | 2,483 |
| Commodities | $360.9m | $4.8m | $365.8m | 84.4% | $350.5m | $15.3m | $17.9m | 5,669 |
| … of which Shipping (Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb traffic) | $1.4m | $1.7m | $3.1m | $0.0m | $3.1m | $5.6m | 31 | |
| Other financial | $6.5m | $6.6m | $13.1m | 3.0% | $0.0m | $13.1m | $17.3m | 1,172 |
Shipping: Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb traffic is a line within commodities: it counts markets on the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (transit counts as reported by IMF PortWatch), moved here from politics by Editor rulings of 31 Oct 2026. Each build checks every such market's rules automatically; a market is counted here only if it resolves solely on vessel transit counts published by IMF PortWatch (Polymarket) or by IMF PortWatch or another named statistical source (Kalshi; Editor ruling of 31 Oct 2026). It measures traffic and shipping volumes only.
Largest financial series and events
Kalshi lists its 15-minute and daily price contracts as hundreds of separate events a week, so Kalshi rows here are whole series; Polymarket rows are single events.
| # | Series or event | Venue | Subcategory | Weekly notional | Of which short-dated | Events | Open interest (end) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold 15-minute (KXGOLD15M) | Kalshi | Commodities | $220.6m | $220.6m | 448 | $0.1m | API |
| 2 | WTI 15-minute (KXWTI15M) | Kalshi | Commodities | $52.6m | $52.6m | 497 | $0.0m | API |
| 3 | Silver 15-minute (KXSILVER15M) | Kalshi | Commodities | $31.1m | $31.1m | 448 | $0.0m | API |
| 4 | Natural Gas 15-minute (KXNATGAS15M) | Kalshi | Commodities | $13.0m | $13.0m | 497 | $0.0m | API |
| 5 | S&P 500 above/below (KXINXU) | Kalshi | Equity indices | $9.9m | $7.2m | 40 | $0.0m | API |
| 6 | Nasdaq above/below (KXNASDAQ100U) | Kalshi | Equity indices | $7.6m | $4.0m | 39 | $0.0m | API |
| 7 | Fed Decision in December? | Polymarket | Rates and the Fed | $6.5m | $0.0m | 1 | $2.1m | API |
| 8 | Copper 15-minute (KXCOPPER15M) | Kalshi | Commodities | $6.3m | $6.3m | 448 | $0.0m | API |
| 9 | Palladium 15-minute (KXPALLADIUM15M) | Kalshi | Commodities | $5.4m | $5.4m | 448 | $0.0m | API |
| 10 | Platinum 15-minute (KXPLATINUM15M) | Kalshi | Commodities | $4.6m | $4.6m | 448 | $0.0m | API |
Largest longer-dated financial markets
Events ranked by weekly notional in markets lasting more than 24 hours open to close.
| # | Event | Venue | Subcategory | Longer-dated weekly notional | All weekly notional | Open interest (end) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fed Decision in December? | Polymarket | Rates and the Fed | $6.5m | $6.5m | $2.1m | API |
| 2 | Nasdaq-100 price on Nov 2, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | Equity indices | $2.9m | $2.9m | $0.0m | API |
| 3 | US gas prices this week | Kalshi | Commodities | $2.9m | $2.9m | $1.2m | API |
| 4 | Fed decision in Dec 2026? | Kalshi | Rates and the Fed | $1.9m | $1.9m | $3.0m | API |
| 5 | S&P price on Nov 2, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | Equity indices | $1.4m | $1.4m | $0.0m | API |
| 6 | What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026? | Polymarket | Commodities | $1.3m | $1.3m | $1.1m | API |
| 7 | Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | Polymarket | Other financial | $1.1m | $1.1m | $0.3m | API |
| 8 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Polymarket | Commodities | $0.9m | $0.9m | $1.7m | API |
| 9 | Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026? | Kalshi | Equity indices | $0.8m | $0.8m | $4.6m | API |
| 10 | Anthropic IPO by __? | Polymarket | Other financial | $0.7m | $0.7m | $0.9m | API |
Largest quote moves in financial markets
Market quotes, not probabilities. Mid = average of best yes bid and ask in US dollars per $1 contract, at the start and end snapshots. Start quotes from the start snapshot (Kalshi 2 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC, Polymarket 2 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC); end quotes checked Kalshi 9 Nov 2026, 00:03–00:05 UTC, Polymarket 9 Nov 2026, 00:03–00:06 UTC. Only markets with a two-sided quote at both snapshots, a bid-ask spread of 10 cents or less and at least $25,000 of notional in the window; one market per event. Change is in cents per $1 contract. Markets whose outcome labels are withheld under the house rule are not eligible.
| # | Event | Outcome | Venue | Mid, start | Mid, end | Change (cents) | Market weekly notional | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gas prices in the US in Nov 2026? | Above 4.00 | Kalshi | 0.685 | 0.115 | -57.0 | $0.1m | API |
| 2 | What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026? | ↑ $105 | Polymarket | 0.840 | 0.285 | -55.5 | $0.1m | API |
| 3 | US imports Russian diesel by…? | January 31 | Polymarket | 0.685 | 0.240 | -44.5 | $0.1m | API |
| 4 | Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.75T | Polymarket | 0.820 | 0.425 | -39.5 | $0.0m | API |
| 5 | Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | Anthropic | Polymarket | 0.431 | 0.095 | -33.6 | $0.2m | API |
| 6 | Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) | 1.8T+ | Polymarket | 0.565 | 0.265 | -30.0 | $0.1m | API |
| 7 | How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO? | $75B to $85B | Polymarket | 0.011 | 0.307 | +29.6 | $0.0m | API |
| 8 | Largest Company end of December 2026? | NVIDIA | Polymarket | 0.555 | 0.275 | -28.0 | $0.1m | API |
| 9 | Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $1.25–$1.5T | Polymarket | 0.106 | 0.311 | +20.5 | $0.2m | API |
| 10 | How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026? | $115.01 or above | Kalshi | 0.443 | 0.263 | -18.0 | $0.2m | API |
2. Crypto: both views
Crypto price contracts (Kalshi Crypto category; Polymarket crypto tags), in any category. Short-dated means a market’s scheduled open-to-close duration is 24 hours or less (Kalshi close_time − open_time; Polymarket market startDate → endDate, falling back to the event’s dates where market dates are not stored). This captures 15-minute, hourly and daily price contracts. Both views below are excluding sports.
| Venue | Crypto, all durations | Crypto, short-dated (≤24h) | Crypto, longer-dated | Open interest (end) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $2.92bn | $2.89bn | $31.3m | $30.2m |
| Polymarket (international) | $168.9m | $104.6m | $64.3m | $42.5m |
| Total | $3.09bn | $3.00bn | $95.6m | $72.7m |
Short-dated crypto price contracts (≤24 hours) were 59.9% of all non-sports notional. Excluding all short-dated contracts, longer-dated crypto price contracts were 5.9% of the $1.62bn that remains.
Largest Kalshi short-dated crypto series: 15-minute bitcoin series (KXBTC15M) $2.20bn; hourly bitcoin above/below series (KXBTCD) $195.6m; 15-minute ether series (KXETH15M) $154.5m.
$5,011 came from markets with a missing open or close time; these are treated as not short-dated.
3. Politics
Politics, elections and world events: $1.41bn (Kalshi $1.12bn, Polymarket $287.3m), 28.2% of non-sports notional.
Violence-related markets are excluded. Markets on assassinations, deaths of people, war, military strikes, invasions, armed conflict, terrorism, coups, nuclear use and similar violence, together with markets on ceasefires and peace talks in an armed conflict and on civil unrest (curfews, states of emergency, riots), are removed from this page and from every total, in the same way as sports, as are markets on a named leader leaving office that could resolve on death, coup or capture. Where a market is borderline, it is removed. This week that removed $40.8m of politics notional (Kalshi $0.9m, Polymarket $39.9m; 2.8% of politics before removal). We do not name or rank these markets. The rule and keyword list are in the methodology.
| # | Event | Venue | Weekly notional | Share of politics | Open interest (end) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Senate winner? | Kalshi | $121.2m | 8.6% | $0.0m | API |
| 2 | Who will control the House? | Kalshi | $114.0m | 8.1% | $0.0m | API |
| 3 | Texas Governor winner? | Kalshi | $92.4m | 6.6% | $0.0m | API |
| 4 | Who will control the Senate? | Kalshi | $89.4m | 6.4% | $0.0m | API |
| 5 | 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? | Kalshi | $76.0m | 5.4% | $0.0m | API |
| 6 | Michigan Senate winner? | Kalshi | $63.0m | 4.5% | $0.0m | API |
| 7 | Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) | Polymarket | $55.0m | 3.9% | $5.1m | API |
| 8 | Los Angeles Mayor winner? | Kalshi | $37.9m | 2.7% | $0.0m | API |
| 9 | Mississippi Senate winner? | Kalshi | $36.6m | 2.6% | $15.7m | API |
| 10 | Florida Governor winner? | Kalshi | $34.6m | 2.5% | $0.0m | API |
$0.3m of politics-category markets were crypto-flagged (for example, crypto legislation) and are counted in section 2, not here.
4. Other non-sports markets
Weather, culture, technology, mentions and other non-sports markets outside the first three sections: $66.6m (Kalshi $45.9m, Polymarket $20.7m), 1.3% of non-sports notional.
| # | Event | Venue | Weekly notional | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will it rain in St. Louis on Nov 5, 2026? | Kalshi | $1.5m | API |
| 2 | Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? | Kalshi | $1.3m | API |
| 3 | Godzilla Minus Zero · Rotten Tomatoes score | Kalshi | $1.2m | API |
| 4 | Best AI at the end of 2026? | Kalshi | $1.2m | API |
| 5 | Will it rain in St. Louis on Nov 4, 2026? | Kalshi | $1.1m | API |
All non-sports markets
This week (excluding sports)
| Venue | Weekly notional | Week on week | 4-week average | Venue share | Open interest, start → end | OI change | Active markets | New markets listed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $4.50bn | n/a | — | 90.0% | $895.3m → $656.3m | -26.7% | 93,163 | 81,184 |
| Polymarket (international) | $498.5m | n/a | — | 10.0% | $250.5m → $206.6m | -17.6% | 51,191 | 44,363 |
| Total | $5.00bn | n/a | — | 100% | $1.15bn → $862.8m | 144,354 | 125,547 |
Week-on-week and 4-week average appear once previous full-week editions exist (from the second and fourth editions).
New markets listed: Non-sports markets first listed after the start snapshot (Kalshi open_time, Polymarket createdAt) that were open at the end snapshot or traded before closing. Zero-volume markets that opened and closed inside the window are not counted.
By edition section
| Section | Kalshi | Polymarket (intl) | Total | Short-dated (≤24h) | Longer-dated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial, excluding crypto | $411.9m | $21.6m | $433.6m | $380.8m | $52.8m |
| Crypto | $2.92bn | $168.9m | $3.09bn | $3.00bn | $95.6m |
| Politics | $1.12bn | $287.3m | $1.41bn | $0.1m | $1.41bn |
| Other non-sports | $45.9m | $20.7m | $66.6m | $6.9m | $59.7m |
Shares of non-sports notional, with short-dated (≤24h) contracts included: financial excluding crypto 8.7%, crypto 61.8% (short-dated crypto alone 59.9%), politics 28.2%, other 1.3%.
By venue category (excluding sports)
The venue-category view used in earlier editions. Financial here includes crypto price contracts.
| Category | Kalshi | Polymarket (intl) | Total | Share of total | Kalshi share | Excluding short-dated | Crypto-flagged (K / P) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial/economic | $3.33bn | $190.2m | $3.52bn | 70.5% | 94.6% | $148.1m | $2.92bn / $168.5m |
| Politics/elections/world | $1.12bn | $287.7m | $1.41bn | 28.2% | 79.6% | $1.41bn | $0.0m / $0.3m |
| Other non-sports | $45.9m | $20.7m | $66.6m | 1.3% | 68.9% | $59.7m | $0.0m / $0.0m |
Short-dated contracts, all subjects
| Venue | Weekly notional (all) | Short-dated (≤24h) | Excluding short-dated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $4.50bn | $3.28bn | $1.22bn |
| Polymarket (international) | $498.5m | $104.7m | $393.8m |
| Total | $5.00bn | $3.38bn | $1.62bn |
Concentration
The ten largest events took 14.4% of non-sports notional (Kalshi top ten: 15.4% of Kalshi; Polymarket top ten: 36.7% of Polymarket), out of 45,654 events with any activity.
Charts
Largest Kalshi series (excluding sports)
| # | Series | Category | Events | Weekly notional |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTC 15 min (KXBTC15M) | financial | 665 | $2.20bn |
| 2 | Gold 15-minute (KXGOLD15M) | financial | 448 | $220.6m |
| 3 | Bitcoin price Above/below (KXBTCD) | financial | 167 | $218.2m |
| 4 | ETH 15 min (KXETH15M) | financial | 665 | $154.5m |
| 5 | Texas Senate race (SENATETX) | politics | 1 | $121.2m |
| 6 | House winner (CONTROLH) | politics | 2 | $114.1m |
| 7 | XRP 15 min (KXXRP15M) | financial | 665 | $92.7m |
| 8 | Texas Governor (GOVPARTYTX) | politics | 1 | $92.4m |
| 9 | Senate winner (CONTROLS) | politics | 2 | $89.6m |
| 10 | Congress balance of power combo (KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO) | politics | 1 | $76.0m |
Same event, two venues
Market quotes, not probabilities. Best yes bid/ask in US dollars per $1 contract, as reported by each venue’s API. Kalshi quotes checked 9 Nov 2026, 00:03–00:05 UTC; Polymarket quotes checked 9 Nov 2026, 00:03–00:06 UTC. Pairs are matched by hand (config/crosslist.json). Contract wording, resolution sources and deadlines can differ between venues; outcomes are shown with each venue’s own label and are not matched one-for-one.
| Event | Kalshi weekly | Polymarket weekly | Kalshi OI | Polymarket OI | Kalshi quotes (bid/ask) | Polymarket quotes (bid/ask) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 Democratic nominee | $28.0m | $11.3m | $186.7m | $9.9m | Jon Ossoff: 0.24/0.25 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 0.13/0.14 Gavin Newsom: 0.12/0.13 | Jon Ossoff: 0.26/0.26 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 0.16/0.17 Gavin Newsom: 0.09/0.09 |
| 2028 Republican nominee | $14.6m | $11.4m | $58.5m | $9.7m | J.D. Vance: 0.33/0.34 Marco Rubio: 0.20/0.21 Ron DeSantis: 0.16/0.17 | J.D. Vance: 0.32/0.32 Marco Rubio: 0.20/0.21 Ron DeSantis: 0.15/0.15 |
| 2028 presidential winner | $12.4m | $12.1m | $63.4m | $36.2m | Jon Ossoff: 0.20/0.21 J.D. Vance: 0.13/0.14 Marco Rubio: 0.10/0.11 | JD Vance: 0.18/0.18 Jon Ossoff: 0.17/0.17 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 0.12/0.12 |
| Israel PM after the 2026 election (deadlines and repeat-election rules differ) | $1.9m | $6.7m | $4.3m | $7.2m | Gadi Eizenkot: 0.56/0.57 No one: 0.31/0.32 Benjamin Netanyahu: 0.10/0.12 | Gadi Eizenkot: 0.62/0.62 Benjamin Netanyahu: 0.20/0.20 Avigdor Lieberman: 0.07/0.08 |
| Fed decision, Dec 2026 FOMC | $1.9m | $6.5m | $3.0m | $2.1m | Hike 25bps: 0.76/0.77 Fed maintains rate: 0.22/0.23 Hike >25bps: 0.01/0.02 | 25 bps increase: 0.76/0.77 No change: 0.22/0.23 25 bps decrease: 0.01/0.01 |
| Next French president | $1.3m | $5.5m | $1.7m | $4.6m | Marine Le Pen: 0.46/0.47 David Lisnard: 0.14/0.15 Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 0.13/0.14 | Marine Le Pen: 0.46/0.46 David Lisnard: 0.15/0.15 Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 0.13/0.14 |
| Hormuz traffic back to normal (deadlines/definitions differ) | $0.5m | $0.9m | $2.8m | $1.7m | — (outcome labels withheld) | — (outcome labels withheld) |
| US–Iran nuclear deal (deadlines differ) | $0.5m | $0.5m | $1.1m | $1.3m | Before Jan 20, 2029: 0.48/0.51 Before Jan 1, 2028: 0.33/0.35 Before Oct 1, 2027: 0.16/0.92 | December 31: 0.09/0.10 November 30: 0.02/0.02 |
| Number of Fed cuts in 2026 | $0.2m | $0.4m | $6.6m | $2.0m | Exactly 0 cuts: 0.97/0.97 Exactly 1 cut: 0.02/0.02 Exactly 15 cuts: 0.01/0.01 | 0 (0 bps): 0.98/0.98 1 (25 bps): 0.01/0.02 2 (50 bps): 0.00/0.00 |
| Satoshi moves BTC in 2026 | $0.2m | $0.3m | $0.3m | $1.5m | Before 2027: 0.03/0.04 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: 0.02/0.02 |
| Clarity Act becomes law (deadlines differ) | $0.1m | $0.3m | $1.0m | $4.8m | Before Jan 1, 2028: 0.20/0.22 Before Oct 1, 2027: 0.14/0.18 Before Jul 1, 2027: 0.10/0.13 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law i: 0.02/0.03 |
| US recession in 2026 | $0.3m | $0.0m | $0.9m | $0.6m | Starts: 0.02/0.03 | US recession by end of 2026?: 0.03/0.04 |
| GameStop–eBay acquisition | $0.2m | $0.1m | $1.0m | $0.8m | Before Jan 1, 2027: 0.02/0.03 | Will GameStop acquire eBay?: 0.02/0.02 |
| Bitcoin hits $150k | $0.1m | $0.0m | $0.9m | $0.2m | Before January 2027: 0.01/0.02 | by December 31, 2027: 0.23/0.24 by September 30, 2027: 0.14/0.16 by June 30, 2027: 0.09/0.11 |
Rows marked labels_withheld: outcome labels and prices withheld under the house no-outcome-labels rule (Editor, 2026-11-02); notional and open interest are shown.
Data quality
| Check | This edition |
|---|---|
| Snapshot status | all parts complete (0 HTTP retries logged and recovered) |
| Window | 2 Nov 2026, 00:06 to 9 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC |
| Kalshi closed-market sweep | 837,332 markets scanned; coverage from 1 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC; gap: none |
| Kalshi cross-check | Of 60,950 markets open at the start and gone at the end, 39,071 were returned by the close-time sweep; of the rest, fetched by ticker, 0 closed in the window with any volume ($0.0m); 150 not returned by the API |
| Kalshi intra-window markets | $3.30bn from markets that opened and closed inside the window (counted) |
| Polymarket cross-check | Our weekly $179.9m vs $180.1m from Polymarket’s own lifetime event volume over the same snapshots (2,825 events). Gamma’s rolling 7-day field ($145.2m) is not comparable: it reads zero for markets that resolved during the week and is stale for markets closed earlier. |
| Markets without a baseline (excluded, not estimated) | Kalshi 126; Polymarket 105 |
| Sports removed | Kalshi $4.37bn; Polymarket $841.4m; keyword-only matches in sports_review.csv for Editor review |
| Violence-related markets removed | $40.9m in all ($40.8m politics, $0.0m financial, $0.1m other); removed from display and from every total; matches listed for the Editor (not published) |
| Kalshi combo (multivariate) markets | Excluded: many are sports parlays built from other markets’ legs; including them would double count legs |
| ForecastEx | Excluded pilot: 5,833,686 pairs on CT trading dates 2026-11-02, 2026-11-03, 2026-11-04, 2026-11-05, 2026-11-06, 2026-11-07, 2026-11-08; not in any total until the unit is verified |
Where every figure comes from
| Figure | Venue endpoint | Snapshot file | Checked (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi weekly notional, OI, quotes (open events) | https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?status=open&with_nested_markets=true | kalshi_open_events.json.gz | start 2 Nov 2026, 00:06–00:08; end 9 Nov 2026, 00:03–00:05 |
| Kalshi markets closed in window | https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?mve_filter=exclude&min_close_ts=…&max_close_ts=… | kalshi_closed_markets.json.gz | 9 Nov 2026, 00:03–00:07 |
| Kalshi markets that left the open set | https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?tickers=… | kalshi_departed_markets.json.gz | 9 Nov 2026, 00:08–00:11 |
| Kalshi categories, sports and violence tags, financial subcategory tags | https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series | kalshi_series.json.gz | 9 Nov 2026, 00:03–00:03 |
| Polymarket weekly notional, OI, quotes | https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=false | polymarket_open_events.json.gz | start 2 Nov 2026, 00:06–00:08; end 9 Nov 2026, 00:03–00:06 |
| Polymarket events closed in window | https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&end_date_min=… | polymarket_closed_events.json.gz | 9 Nov 2026, 00:03–00:08 |
| ForecastEx pilot (excluded) | https://forecastex.com/api/download?type=summary&date=YYYYMMDD | forecastex/ | 9 Nov 2026, 00:03–00:04 |
Every event row in the CSV carries its own source_url. Raw snapshots and manifests are kept so any figure can be recomputed.
Downloads
- csv: /prediction-markets/data/weekly/2026-w45/pm-weekly-2026-w45.csv
- json (gzip): /prediction-markets/data/weekly/2026-w45/pm-weekly-2026-w45.json.gz
- summary csv: /prediction-markets/data/weekly/2026-w45/pm-weekly-2026-w45-summary.csv
- history csv: /prediction-markets/data/weekly/pm-weekly-history.csv
- data dictionary: /prediction-markets/data/weekly/data-dictionary/
- latest: /prediction-markets/data/weekly/latest/
Changelog and corrections
- 2026-10-31 (v1): Method set for launch: Kalshi markets closed in the window collected via /markets min_close_ts/max_close_ts (non-combo); Polymarket collected uncapped via /events/keyset; sports excluded by venue tags plus keywords (keyword-only matches reviewed by the Editor); ForecastEx held as an excluded pilot.
- 2026-10-31 (v2): Edition order set by the owner: financial contracts excluding crypto first (new section with subcategories rates and the Fed, equity indices, macro data, FX, commodities and other financial; largest series and longer-dated markets; open interest; quote movers; new chart), then crypto (both views), then politics, then other. Markets on war, military action, assassinations, terrorism, coups, nuclear use and similar violence are now excluded from display and from every total, like sports; the amount removed is published. Event CSV adds section, financial_subcategory and subcategory_basis; summary and history files add a view column.
- 2026-10-31 (v2.1): Editor rulings applied: ceasefire and peace-talk markets and civil-unrest markets (curfews, states of emergency, riots) are always excluded; borderline markets are excluded with a recorded reason; Strait of Hormuz traffic markets move from politics to financial (commodities, shipping line); US-Iran nuclear-deal markets stay in politics. Event CSV adds financial_line.
- 2026-10-31 (v2.2): Further Editor rulings: Bab el-Mandeb transit-count markets join Strait of Hormuz traffic in a shipping line within commodities; leader-out markets that can resolve on death, coup or capture are excluded, as is a Hormuz renaming market; Ukraine and Venezuela election markets and NATO withdrawal or dissolution markets stay in politics; two groups of known false positives stay in the totals but are never named on display.
- 2026-10-31 (v2.3): Editor ruling: two Polymarket Bab el-Mandeb ship-count markets (average daily transits at end of October; total transits for the week of 2 Nov), which resolve only on IMF PortWatch transit counts, move to financial, commodities (shipping line). Markets on the strait being closed stay excluded.
- 2026-10-31 (v2.4): Editor rule for shipping-traffic series: Bab el-Mandeb markets and Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb count series are checked automatically every build and counted under financial, commodities (shipping line) only where they resolve solely on IMF PortWatch transit counts with no other condition; anything ambiguous stays excluded and goes to the Editor. Rules text is now captured in the weekly snapshot.
- 2026-10-31 (v2.5): Editor ruling on the shipping series rule: Kalshi ship-count series qualify when they resolve solely on vessel transit counts published by IMF PortWatch or another named statistical source; Polymarket markets still require IMF PortWatch. Two Kalshi ship-count markets (Strait of Hormuz 7-day average; October daily maximum) stay in the shipping line. The settlement-source text is now logged for every market checked.
- 2026-11-02 (v2.6): Editor rulings, 2 Nov 2026: markets on meetings, talks or meeting locations between leaders of warring parties are excluded as war-related (new authoritative keyword group, leader_meetings_warring_parties, plus 17 dated exclude overrides); leadership-change markets for leaders of states in conflict or crisis stay excluded; borderline diplomatic-meeting, leader-visit and shipping transit-count markets stay in. Removed markets are not named.
- 2026-11-02 (v2.6.1): Editor rulings, 2 Nov 2026: house no-outcome-labels rule (config/labels_withheld.json). For four families kept in the edition (next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting; who Trump will meet in 2026; which countries Trump will visit in 2026; Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb transit-count and traffic markets on both venues) notional, open interest and event titles are published, but outcome labels and prices are not: their cross-venue quotes are withheld (labels_withheld in the JSON) and they are not eligible as quote movers. Two further markets already excluded by the violence filter are now covered by explicit dated Editor overrides. Removed markets are not named.
- Corrections to this edition: none.
What we do not measure
- Unique traders/accounts: not in the public APIs.
- Cash (premium) volume: the APIs report contracts at $1 face, not cash paid.
- Kalshi multivariate (combo) markets: excluded (many are sports parlays built from other markets’ legs; including them would double count legs).
- Polymarket US, CME, Crypto.com, Rothera: no verified public per-market data in the pipeline yet.
- ForecastEx: collected as an excluded pilot until its unit (pairs) is verified as $1 notional.
Methodology
Full method: methodology. Data dictionary: data-dictionary.md in this folder. This is not investment advice.