Prediction Markets Weekly: 2026-W45

Prediction Markets Weekly 2026-W45 in under 60 seconds. Window: snapshots 2 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC to 9 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC. Unit: notional ($1 face), not cash. Excluding sports. All non-sports: $5.00bn (Kalshi 90.0%, Polymarket international exchange 10.0%). Financial contracts excluding crypto: $433.6m (Kalshi $411.9m, Polymarket $21.6m). Financial split: commodities $365.8m, equity indices $21.3m, FX $16.4m, rates and the Fed $13.7m, other financial $13.1m, macro data $3.4m. Crypto: $3.09bn, of which $3.00bn short-dated (24 hours or less). Politics: $1.41bn excluding war and violence markets. Prices are market quotes, not probabilities. Not investment advice. Data page: themidpointnews.com/prediction-markets/data/weekly/2026-w45/.

Key points

1. All non-sports notional: $5.00bn (Kalshi 90.0%, Polymarket intl 10.0%)
2. Financial excluding crypto: $433.6m; commodities led at $365.8m
3. Crypto: $3.09bn, of which $3.00bn short-dated (≤24h)
4. Politics: $1.41bn after the violence exclusion

Read the stories

• Prediction markets 2026-W45: financial contracts excluding crypto reach $433.6m, led by commodities

Sources

1. themidpointnews.com themidpointnews.com/prediction-markets/data/weekly/2026-w45/
2. themidpointnews.com themidpointnews.com/prediction-markets/data/methodology/

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