Prediction markets 2026-W45: financial contracts excluding crypto reach $433.6m, led by commodities
Rates, equity indices, macro data, FX, commodities and company markets recorded $433.6m in notional ($1 face, not cash) on Kalshi and Polymarket's international exchange from 2 Nov 2026, 00:06 to 9 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC. Commodities led with $365.8m, of which $350.5m was in short-dated contracts lasting 24 hours or less. The largest longer-dated financial market was ‘Fed Decision in December?’ on Polymarket at $6.5m.