Prediction markets 2026-W45: financial contracts excluding crypto reach $433.6m, led by commodities

Financial contracts excluding crypto recorded $433.6m in notional on Kalshi and Polymarket’s international exchange in the week to 9 Nov 2026 (snapshots 2 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC to 9 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC), 8.7% of non-sports notional ($380.8m of the financial total was in short-dated contracts lasting 24 hours or less); commodities led with $365.8m, and the largest longer-dated financial market was ‘Fed Decision in December?’ on Polymarket at $6.5m ($1 face notional, excluding sports).

The figures come from The MidPoint News Prediction Markets Weekly. All are notional at $1 face per contract, not cash, and exclude sports.

Watch the W45 video summary (under 60 seconds).

Key numbers

• $433.6m financial notional excluding crypto (Kalshi $411.9m, Polymarket $21.6m); 8.7% of non-sports notional, with $380.8m of it in short-dated contracts (≤24 hours open to close) and $52.8m longer-dated
• Financial split: commodities $365.8m, equity indices $21.3m, FX $16.4m, rates and the Fed $13.7m, other financial $13.1m, macro data $3.4m
• $6.5m largest longer-dated financial market: ‘Fed Decision in December?’ on Polymarket
• $220.6m largest financial series: ‘Gold 15-minute’ on Kalshi ($220.6m of it short-dated)
• $75.7m financial open interest excluding crypto at the end snapshot (Kalshi $52.7m, Polymarket $23.0m)
• 59.9% of non-sports notional was in short-dated crypto price contracts lasting a day or less ($3.00bn); Kalshi’s 15-minute bitcoin series alone accounted for $2.20bn
• $1.62bn non-sports notional excluding all short-dated contracts (≤24 hours open to close); longer-dated crypto price contracts were $95.6m of that
• $1.41bn politics notional (Kalshi $1.12bn, Polymarket $287.3m), after removing $40.8m in markets on war, military action, ceasefires, civil unrest and other violence
• $5.00bn weekly notional excluding sports (Kalshi $4.50bn, Polymarket $498.5m)
• 90.0% Kalshi share of non-sports notional; Polymarket 10.0%
• 14.4% of non-sports notional was in the ten largest events (of 45,654 with activity)
• $656.3m Kalshi open interest at the end snapshot (-26.7% on the start)

Financial contracts, excluding crypto

Kalshi recorded $411.9m and Polymarket $21.6m in financial contracts other than crypto. By subcategory: commodities $365.8m, equity indices $21.3m, FX $16.4m, rates and the Fed $13.7m, other financial $13.1m, macro data $3.4m. Short-dated contracts lasting 24 hours or less, such as Kalshi’s 15-minute gold, oil and currency contracts, made up $380.8m of the financial total; longer-dated contracts made up $52.8m.

The largest longer-dated financial markets were ‘Fed Decision in December?’ on Polymarket ($6.5m); ‘Nasdaq-100 price on Nov 2, 2026 at 4pm EST?’ on Kalshi ($2.9m); ‘US gas prices this week’ on Kalshi ($2.9m).

Open interest in open financial markets other than crypto was $75.7m at the closing snapshot (Kalshi $52.7m, Polymarket $23.0m).

Among the biggest quote moves in financial markets (market quotes, not probabilities; mid of best bid and ask per $1 contract, start snapshot to end snapshot, end quotes checked 9 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC on Kalshi and 9 Nov 2026, 00:03 UTC on Polymarket): ‘Gas prices in the US in Nov 2026?’ (Above 4.00) on Kalshi, 68.5 to 11.5 cents; ‘What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?’ (↑ $105) on Polymarket, 84.0 to 28.5 cents; ‘US imports Russian diesel by…?’ (January 31) on Polymarket, 68.5 to 24.0 cents.

Crypto

Crypto price contracts recorded $3.09bn, of which $3.00bn was in short-dated contracts lasting 24 hours or less and $95.6m in longer-dated contracts. Short-dated crypto contracts made up 59.9% of all non-sports notional, and Kalshi’s 15-minute bitcoin series alone accounted for $2.20bn.

Politics

Politics, elections and world events recorded $1.41bn (Kalshi $1.12bn, Polymarket $287.3m). We exclude markets on war, military action, assassinations, terrorism and other violence, together with ceasefire, peace-talk and civil-unrest markets, from our coverage and from every total; this week they accounted for $40.8m of politics notional.

The largest politics events were ‘Texas Senate winner?’ on Kalshi ($121.2m); ‘Who will control the House?’ on Kalshi ($114.0m); ‘Texas Governor winner?’ on Kalshi ($92.4m).

Other markets

Other non-sports markets, such as weather, culture and mentions markets, added $66.6m; the largest was ‘Will it rain in St. Louis on Nov 5, 2026?’ on Kalshi at $1.5m.

All non-sports markets

Across all subjects, non-sports event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket’s international exchange recorded $5.00bn. Kalshi accounted for 90.0% ($4.50bn) and Polymarket for 10.0% ($498.5m). Excluding all short-dated contracts, the total was $1.62bn. Open interest in open non-sports markets stood at $656.3m on Kalshi and $206.6m on Polymarket at the closing snapshot.

How we measure

We take snapshots of both venues’ public APIs every Monday shortly after 00:00 UTC. Weekly notional is the change in each market’s lifetime volume between snapshots, including markets that opened and closed during the week. Sports are excluded, and so are markets on war, military action and other violence. Financial subcategories follow a published mapping of venue series, tags and keywords. ForecastEx data is collected as a pilot but not included until its unit is verified. Full details are in the methodology. This is not investment advice.

Source: The MidPoint News Prediction Markets Weekly, 2026-W45, themidpointnews.com. Notional ($1 face), not cash. Excluding sports.