December Fed hold quotes fall after October CPI and Waller speech, as Kalshi and Polymarket bid up a larger hike
Quotes for no change in the federal funds rate at the Federal Reserve's 8–9 December meeting fell sharply on Kalshi and Polymarket after Governor Christopher J. Waller said a 50 basis point rise 'should be considered' if October inflation stayed firm, and after the Bureau of Labor Statistics published a 0.4 per cent monthly rise in the CPI-U. A hike of more than 25 basis points, previously a 1–2¢ tail, is now quoted at about 11¢ on both venues. The first move came after Mr Waller's 09:00 GMT speech in London, before the 13:30 GMT CPI release.