December Fed hold quotes fall after October CPI and Waller speech, as Kalshi and Polymarket bid up a larger hike

Quotes for a hold at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting have collapsed on Kalshi and Polymarket, and a hike of more than 25 basis points is no longer a 1–2¢ tail, after a speech by Governor Christopher J. Waller and the October consumer price index.

When we reported the December books on 30 October, both venues quoted a 25 basis point hike in the low 70s of cents and a hold in the mid-20s, after an overnight retreat from the highs that followed the 28 October decision. The Committee held the target range at 3-3/4 to 4 per cent on a 10–2 vote, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferring a quarter-point rise. The next scheduled meeting is on 8–9 December, with a Summary of Economic Projections.

All prices below are market quotes, not probabilities. Each live figure is the mid-point of the best bid and best ask at the time of our check. Volume figures are notional ($1 face), not cash.

What the BLS published

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 per cent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 0.6 per cent rise in September (USDL-26-1685, released at 8:30 a.m. ET, 13:30 GMT, on 10 November). The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 per cent, as it did in September and August. Shelter rose 0.3 per cent and, the Bureau said, accounted for over 30 per cent of the monthly all-items increase. Energy rose 0.7 per cent after a 5.2 per cent increase in September, and food rose 0.5 per cent.

BLS did not publish 12-month per cent changes for most series. It said it did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations, so it could not publish October 2025 indexes for most series and therefore could not calculate the 12-month change for October 2026. The November CPI is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday 10 December, the day after the FOMC’s two-day meeting ends.

What Fed officials said

Mr Waller’s prepared remarks, released for delivery at 4:00 a.m. EST (9:00 a.m. London, 09:00 GMT) at the Bank of England Watchers Conference in London, were given before the CPI release. He said he had supported the October hold, but that “even if” October inflation improved on September, “I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC’s policy rate at our December meeting”.

He then set a test for a larger move, to be judged against data that had not yet been published: “if the October CPI inflation data out later today are similar to the past two monthly readings—with core CPI inflation around 0.3 percent or even higher—then a stronger policy move may be needed. In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting. Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.”

The core CPI print later that morning was 0.3 per cent, the figure Mr Waller had named.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, speaking later the same day in Houston, after the release, said: “The Consumer Price Index for October came out this morning. It was higher than expected.” She added that “the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases” and that “it may be possible to move more rapidly this winter than the FOMC has moved so far this fall”.

Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman, speaking in Washington on the afternoon of 10 November, also after the print, did not specify a 25 or 50 basis point move for December. Her remarks said “today’s consumer price index data suggest that inflation pressures may persist for longer” and that “there is still work to do to bring inflation closer to 2 percent”. She added that “monetary policy is not on a preset course”.

Where the December contracts stand

Kalshi, event KXFEDDECISION-26DEC, checked at 06:26 GMT on 11 November:

Total notional traded across the five December markets was $8.16m. The largest share, $2.80m, was in the “Hike >25bps” market, which Kalshi’s rules treat as the yes outcome for any hike larger than 25 basis points, including a 50 basis point rise. The markets close at 18:59 GMT on 9 December.

Polymarket, “Fed Decision in December?”, checked at 06:26 GMT on 11 November:

Polymarket reported $24.94m in notional for the event, of which $7.27m was in the previous 24 hours. Its own one-day change fields show “No change” down 14.85¢ and “50+ bps increase” up 10.45¢. The outcome labels are not identical to Kalshi’s: Polymarket’s larger-hike leg is “50+ bps increase”, and its rules say a change that is not one of the listed increments is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.

A check of the same APIs at 06:20 GMT on 10 November, before Mr Waller’s speech and the CPI release, put event notional at $4.95m on Kalshi and $17.67m on Polymarket.

How the quotes moved

The path was in two steps. Kalshi’s hourly candlesticks record the bid and ask at the end of each hour (GMT). Polymarket’s hourly series is the venue’s own price-history value, not a bid/ask mid, so the figures below are described separately.

On Kalshi, in the hour to 09:00 GMT on 10 November, immediately before Mr Waller’s remarks were released for delivery, the 25 basis point hike market was 80¢ / 81¢ (mid 80.5¢), “Fed maintains rate” was 19¢ / 20¢ (mid 19.5¢) and “Hike >25bps” was 1¢ / 2¢ (mid 1.5¢). In the following hour, to 10:00 GMT, those mids were 88.5¢, 8.5¢ and 2.5¢. The 25 basis point hike quote then eased a little, to 86.5¢ by the hour to 13:00 GMT, just before the CPI release; the hold was 7.5¢ and the larger hike 5.5¢.

The hour to 14:00 GMT, which includes the 13:30 GMT CPI release, was the busiest hour in this window for the 25 basis point hike and hold markets, with 289,146 and 210,453 contracts traded respectively. At the end of that hour the mids were 85.5¢, 3.5¢ and 10.5¢. “Hike >25bps” then printed a mid of 13.0¢ in the hour to 15:00 GMT, the highest close in the period we checked, on 345,470 contracts, the busiest hour for that market after the post-speech hour to 10:00 GMT, when 748,703 contracts traded while the mid closed at only 2.5¢. By our 06:26 GMT check the three mids were 84.5¢, 4.5¢ and 11.5¢.

Polymarket’s price history shows the same shape. At 06:00 GMT on 10 November its values were 79.5¢ for a 25 basis point increase, 18.5¢ for no change and 0.55¢ for a 50+ basis point increase. At 10:00 GMT, after the speech, they were 88.5¢, 6.5¢ and 4.15¢. At 13:00 GMT, just before the CPI release, they were 86.5¢, 7.5¢ and 4.35¢. At 14:00 GMT they were 85.5¢, 2.65¢ and 11.75¢, and the 50+ basis point series peaked at 12.75¢ at 15:00 GMT. At 06:26 GMT on 11 November the values were 85.5¢, 3.65¢ and 11.0¢, in line with the live bid/ask mids in the table above.

Neither venue’s data attributes the moves to a single cause. The first leg began in the hour after Mr Waller’s pre-release remarks; the larger-hike quotes then rose in the hour that included the CPI print, with Ms Logan’s and Ms Bowman’s later comments still to come that day.

Why it matters

• The hold is no longer the alternative. A 25 basis point hike was already the leading December outcome on both venues, including on 30 October and in the hours before Mr Waller’s speech. What changed on 10 November is the collapse of the hold quote, from the high teens of cents before the speech to about 4¢, and the re-pricing of a hike larger than 25 basis points from a 1–2¢ tail to about 11¢.
• The path had two steps. The first move came after a scheduled FOMC participant said, before the print, that a 50 basis point rise should be considered if core CPI came in around 0.3 per cent or higher — which it then did. The second came after the release. Event-contract quotes can move on official communication as well as on the data.
• The calendar is tight. The FOMC meets on 8–9 December, with a Summary of Economic Projections. The November CPI is not due until 10 December, the following day, so the decision will be taken without that reading. The Fed’s meeting calendar has not yet dated the minutes of the 27–28 October meeting. The Fed says minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the policy decision.
• The books are larger. Kalshi’s December event notional is $8.16m, against $2.27m in our 30 October check, and Polymarket’s is $24.94m, against $9.04m. That is still modest next to listed rates futures, but it is a sharper one-day rise than these books had been seeing.

What we are watching

• Further remarks by FOMC participants before the December blackout period, including any comment on a 25 versus 50 basis point move.
• The minutes of the 27–28 October meeting, once the Fed dates them.
• Whether the larger-hike quotes, now about 11¢ on both venues, hold, fade or rise further as 8–9 December approaches.

Sources

All venue quotes, notional figures and historical series checked on 11 November 2026 at 06:26 GMT. The pre-speech notional comparison uses a check of the same APIs at 06:20 GMT on 10 November.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index Summary (USDL-26-1685), 10 Nov 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 GMT).
• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, The Economic Outlook and Some Thoughts on Labor Market Dynamism, Governor Christopher J. Waller, 10 Nov 2026, for delivery 4:00 a.m. EST (9:00 a.m. London, 09:00 GMT); prepared text (PDF).
• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economic and monetary policy outlook, President Lorie Logan, 10 Nov 2026.
• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, The U.S. Economy and Considerations for Monetary Policy, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman, 10 Nov 2026.
• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, 28 Oct 2026; meeting calendars.
• Kalshi, event KXFEDDECISION-26DEC, and hourly candlesticks for Hike 25bps, Fed maintains rate and Hike >25bps.
• Polymarket, Fed Decision in December? (Gamma API) and event page; CLOB hourly price history for the 25 basis point increase, no-change and 50+ basis point increase outcomes.