How the US midterms control contracts settle

How the US midterms House and Senate control contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket, in under 60 seconds. Polling day is Tue 3 Nov 2026. Kalshi: may settle early on a consensus of media calls projecting control; otherwise, the party of the Speaker (House) or the President pro tempore (Senate) on 1 Feb 2027. Polymarket: the party that wins a majority of voting seats, with independents counted for the party they caucus with. Polymarket's listed end date is a listed date, not a confirmed payout time. Sources: Kalshi and Polymarket market rules (public APIs), accessed 3 Nov 2026. Not investment advice.

Key points

1. Kalshi House and Senate control: may settle early on a consensus of media calls projecting control. Otherwise, the party of the Speaker (House) or the President pro tempore (Senate) on 1 Feb 2027. Close and expected expiration: 10:00am ET, 1 Feb 2027.
2. Kalshi balance of power is a combination contract: if any component resolves No or becomes impossible, the whole contract resolves No. Expires no later than 10:00am ET, 8 Feb 2027.
3. Polymarket House and Senate: the party that wins a majority of voting seats. Independents count for the party they caucus with. With no majority, the House goes to the party of the first elected Speaker of the new Congress, and the Senate to the party with half the seats and the Vice Presidency.
4. Polymarket's listed end date is 11:59pm ET, 3 Nov 2026. That is a listed date, not a confirmed payout time. The rules let a market stay open until no later than 11:59pm ET on 4 Jan 2027, if independents' caucus choices are not known.

Read the stories

• Midterms eve: Kalshi and Polymarket line up on Senate control as Kalshi's balance-of-power notional rises

Sources

1. api.elections.kalshi.com api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/CONTROLH-2026?with_nested_markets=true
2. api.elections.kalshi.com api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/CONTROLS-2026?with_nested_markets=true
3. api.elections.kalshi.com api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB?with_nested_markets
4. gamma-api.polymarket.com gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026
5. gamma-api.polymarket.com gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026
6. gamma-api.polymarket.com gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=balance-of-power-2026-midterms

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