Kalshi puts 2026 midterm volume above $2.5bn, but three rows of its accuracy table do not match their own counts
Kalshi said on 4 November that trading volume on its 2026 US midterm markets had passed $2.5bn, against $1.3bn for the 2024 election cycle, and that favoured candidates won 98% of the races resolved by that morning. The combined figure is consistent with Kalshi's own counts. The percentages printed for House, Senate and Governor races are not.
In a recap published on 4 November 2026, Kalshi said: “Total trading volume on 2026 Midterms markets surpassed $2.5 billion, compared with $1.3 billion for the 2024 election cycle.” These are Kalshi’s own figures. The recap does not say which contracts are included or how volume is counted, and it has not been independently audited.
Kalshi also said: “Of the nearly 500 races that are resolved as of 6:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, the candidates traders were favoring won in 98% of those races.” It noted that several races, including the Alaska and Mississippi Senate races and some House races, were still unresolved.
The accuracy table
The recap gives the number of favoured candidates who won and the number of races in each category, with a percentage. The combined row, 479 of 487, matches the sum of the category rows and works out at 98.4%, consistent with the 98% headline.
Three category percentages do not match their own counts, as published on Kalshi’s page when we checked it on 7 November:
| Race | Kalshi’s count | Kalshi’s percentage | Count as a percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| House | 356 / 360 | 95% | 98.9% |
| Senate | 32 / 33 | 94% | 97.0% |
| Governor | 33 / 34 | 94% | 97.1% |
The Attorney General (26 of 27, 96%), Lieutenant Governor (9 of 10, 90%) and Secretary of State (23 of 23, 100%) rows are consistent. The same 94%, 95% and 94% figures for Senate, House and Governor races also appear in the page’s question-and-answer section. In each of the three cases, the printed percentage understates the count.
The recap does not say at what time a candidate was counted as the favourite, or what price threshold was used. A footnote marker on the table’s count column has no visible note.
Analysis. The combined 98% figure can be reproduced from Kalshi’s own counts, so the discrepancy is in the presentation of the rows, not in the headline. It is still a record of how often the favourite won, not a measure of how well prices were calibrated. That would need the time of observation, the price of each contract and the full set of contracts. Prediction-market prices are quotes, not probabilities.
Sources
- A 2026 Midterms recap: The mega-mega blue tsunami, Kalshi, 4 Nov 2026.
Sources
- A 2026 Midterms recap: The mega-mega blue tsunami — Kalshi, 4 Nov 2026
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